It’s simple, I don’t profit.




Simple as that




More times than not it’s so random. Safest way I’ve seen is more money on smaller legs (3-4) of solid player props or current favs (braves, Mets, giants, dodgers) vs. your lower teams (royals, Oakland, tigers, etc.) even with that it’s still completely tossed up. I’ve had Baltimore completely kill my long parlays every time I pick against them lol


Weird saying this but Baltimore is not as terribly bad as they used to be I’m on em tn lol


Mathematically its almost impossible to profit long term on 3-4 leg parlays. The vig is just too high.


I agree but he just asked for profit. If you’re confident enough and can spend enough, most 3-4 legs can profit you a couple hundred a night. Last week I was up 1500 off 3 3 legs and one 6 that I got really lucky on.


Well any bet can be profitable, it's about being profitable long term. I understand that people can get lucky and hit a couple quick hit parlays, that's not sustainable though.


I was wondering, last night I made a few good calls doing instant bets on pitches in the Yankees game 9th inning and made something like 30 from 5$ plays. Is it feasible to understand a pitching strategy from the first few innings and start with say 100 and make consistent money?


If you approach things from a profit-based perspective this isn’t true. If you have a good understanding of a models win probabilities and get 4 games all at +EV then betting them together is +EV. I have a hockey model that has netted 600u in the past 10 years and 200u this season doing this


The best batters on the teams go 0-4 on many nights. It’s like Step Curry or Jayson Tatum scoring zero points in a game. Gabagool!


Actually the best batters typically go 1-4 hence a .250+ batting average on the season. Of course their are nights they will 0-4 and some 4-4 but on average they will be 1-4 or better.


Sure, but there’s no consistency. He isn’t going on a 162 game streak, shit not even a 10 game streak. You’re gonna have a lot of dog games


Definitely. But it works both ways with hitless streaks... there aren't a lot of 10+ hitless streaks for the great players so you can capitalize on betting for hits when they have maybe 2 games without a hit. Still a gamble of course, especially considering the elite players get walked much more than average players so sometimes it's easier to bet on the average players.


Pick Yankees ML every game. 52-18 for me so far this season.


This the answer right here


You must bet at a whole Lotta money to win a little most of the time


Always. Most of my bets are -130 to -200 and I usually target $100 profit per bet so I'm betting between $130 and $200. Sometimes more sometimes less. You'll never, ever find me with some retard 15 leg parlay at +100000. I'm not and idiot I bet for wins and am highly profitable.


I’ve only been taking the Yankees when they are dogs which is rare this season but they have been hitting. Maybe the run line sometimes. I just can’t justify taking someone at -200 in baseball. I prefer straight betting totals or underdog ML specially early in the year


What’s your net profit on the season?


That’s what my bookie said


I legit just trust my gut, put 200 dollars into my account and barely bet until May, and only place 20 dollar bets, if I have any hesitation I don’t bet it and typically only bet money line and try to hammer favorites or lopsided match ups when I see them. I was +1050 in 2019, + 280 in 2020, -140 last year but I’m +400 right now on baseball but my weeks typically will go make 60 bucks, make 40 bucks, lose 20 make 70, stuff like that. Hell I made 8 dollars last week. I’m not really in it to make money. It just helps me pay attention to the game I love and makes me watch other teams I normally wouldn’t. At the end of the week if I’m up 40 I place a 10 dollar 5 team parlay on Sunday. Also, don’t come to Reddit looking for pick advice. Make your picks first and then if you’re unsure peek Reddit. Nobody here knows anything you don’t.




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Honestly, it's a fucking coin toss up


I let other people do the work and pick based on their models. I'm a small bettor, $30 or so at a time on 2 or 3 leg money line parlays and I'm up a grand this month. But I understand it can all fall apart for no statistical reason what so ever.


this is a good answer, there's a lot of data out there and its hard to compute an edge by yourself so utilizing models that have good metrics and a following can help you make an informed decision -- though I will never blindly trust a model I do use them across all sports


I bet against my team. The Reds


This is the way.


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Good bot


I enjoy doing the research to find good matchups. Check out my posts to see what goes into my pics. The problem with a lot of pros and websites is they'll brag about their W-L record because they make single picks on favs, but it's impossible to profit that way. If you're making bets at 1.50 for example, you have to win 2/3 just to break even.


What is a profit?


It’s a numerical value that represents winnings. Mine just happens to have a minus sign in front of it 🥳


Im intrigued Tell me more of these 'winnings'


Im intrigued Tell me more of these 'winnings'


Would you look at that, all of the words in your comment are in alphabetical order. I have checked 882,037,029 comments, and only 173,953 of them were in alphabetical order.


Fade popular picks when all of Reddit is on it, bet under on strikeouts, don’t be scared to pick underdogs and bet teams to win when they are on the verge of getting swept is my best advice


1. I’m not profitable in baseball. I do well in football and basketball. I only bet baseball because I’m bored and need the action. Last year I gave all my football basketball winnings back. 2. What I find success in is betting the 1st inning no runs. Look up the rankings and if 2 teams are ranked the last 10 ( meaning they don’t score in the 1st inning) I bet that. 3. I really have success with the team total. On Twitter and a podcast I listen to has a weather/stadium report that will tell u which games have a higher probability for scoring more and getting more hits, if a good team shows up on the top of the list (top 7 to be specific) I bet that teams run total over. Todays plays I got Boston over 4.5 runs and the Baltimore vs white Sox game under .5 runs in the first inning.


Check the starting pitchers era would be the first step in my opinion


Don't bet everyday. Look at the schedule and hand pick games that are likely to win aka [email protected] or any good team playing the athletics at home. You bet everyday, you are bound to lose.


Go to MLB app... click game preview... and look at the batter vs pitcher matchups. Some batters just have a pitchers number and vice versa. It's a good place to start.


More time Mi juss guess tuh bloodclaat


I’m really into picking HRs right now. I parlay 2 or 3 at a time for $25-$50/bet. I look at how many HRs a pitcher has given up, who they’re facing, how hot/cold those batters are, how friendly the park is, the weather…and…I think that’s it.


That uh…that did not go well today.


Bet small amounts on bad overnight lines before they move to satiate the itch between Tuesday golf betting. Baseball is too much of a grind for little profit to do any other way in my opinion.


Honestly, I don’t bet every day. I only bet on the days that I feel like there are several good circumstances to pick in. Knowing which stats apply to a team’s current situation is super important. Home vs Away record, does one pitcher in the matchup give up not just a lot earned runs but a lot homeruns as well, what has the team done for me lately, some gut and intuition as well but at the end of the day, nothing is foolproof, you should stick to betting on things that you like and not look at it like a business venture, cause you’ll pour a ton of money as an investor in your own gambling business and not see the returns that you think you will.


Nah you gotta bet everyday!


I mostly do in games. Generally base it off of the pitchers record, which team has better defence, who’s on a winning/losing streak and how many hits in the game


Research…..oh and bet on the Yankees and Judge HRS


Just let er' rip bud.🤘🏾


For me, I look at pitching ERA matchup, teams average runs per game, last 10 o/u, and last 10 win/lose. That helps me in determining o/u and ML/RL. for props, I use props.cash for hitting props and strikeouts and outs


Left handed pitchers vs right handed batters. 118-23


Screw all the stats. Live bet the games


Mlb is a lottery ticket


Baseball sucks for betting. I can’t wait for NBA again!


I love basketball 🏀 but baseball has been more profitable for me. I stick to hits/ run works 80% when I am unsure about a leg I do a RR


Well This Month Has Been Extremely Profitable For Me Personally Up Over 20K and what I would say is just really understand the team your betting on .. are they good catchers ? Are they bats hot at the moment or in general personally I find also what’s important is the pitcher there record how many runs they earned previous matchups could play a roll but I don’t go just based off that mostly they Ks And Earned Runs (ER) also live o/u is a blessing too I been lucky enough to snag some wins off that too and lastly also cutting down the parlay just 1-2 legs can also help Thanks For Coming To My Ted Talk 😄


Nice month! You mind posting your picks today/in the coming days?


I post usually on my Instagram @gateslocks_


Why not post’em on Reddit?


There is so many analytics right vs left, weather home vs away to hard to predict if you don’t understand it all just like me lol


Small parlay pregame and a small parlay live


Just put Yankees as one of them.




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Check the lines and the games I usually go by how I feel about a line/spread/run total that’s usually the 3 baseball bets I will do I’m not going to even look at baseball prop bets just go by the teams you know


There is a lot to be looked at. Weather, impure, pitching conditions, R/L SPLIT, money distribution, long-term systems and systems that are hitting at a high rate for this year, steam bets, ETC.. plus absolutely zero parlays. The only time I do a parlay is if I have correlated parlay. For example, if I had brewers ML and brewers under both for one unit, then I would put .95 units on both of those picks and .1 unit on a parlay between those two to increase ROI Then, you can look at advanced statistics. For example, today alex cobb has a mediocre ERA, if you look at his XERA, it shows that he has been incredible unlucky and his true ERA is about half of what it is.


I just shit out my asshole and play slap dick with my bro’s. 👍🏻




Just gotta bet 4/5 Teamers


I’m new to mlb but I look at what position each team are on the ladder and look at win/lose streaks. If the teams are close on the ladder I stay away from it. Also if a team has won like 6 games straight I won’t bet on them because they’re probably due for a loss. That’s only money line bets, idk anything about the sport. So far that’s been working for me


Yankees, Dodgers, Mets


I throw a dart at a dartboard


Most profitable plays in my experience are a parlay of this; - player(s) to record 1 hit, research the pitcher and the form the batters in -# of strikeouts, usually play it safe with a -300 or -240 play here -ML or +1.5 with an underdog based on a little bit of research of recent history, starting pitchers, home away etc


i follow a dude on tiktok, this season it’s been pretty good


First things first I don’t profit every bet. But in total with my bets I am at a net profit. For me it comes down to starting pitcher a lot, how the team has been doing as a hole, their bullpen strength/depth, where they are playing, as well as statistics…. Easiest way to say the “statistics” thing (and this might be wrong, pulling it out of my ass) if the Yankees lost a game, I look at the matchup and unless I feel very poorly about the matchup I bet the ya is cause they haven’t lost 2 straight all year. (Again, made up stat, I’m sure they’ve lost 2 in a row this year) but just patterns/statistics that stand out in fashion as such.


No runs first inning has been my best bet, over $700 profit


With just Yankees baseball bets? Around $1,800 - $2,000


I usually check my sports almanac from the future and flip to a random page


From my understanding a majority of the sharps left the mlb betting grounds this year because of the impossible to predict baseball variance. Literally some games balls are juiced some are dead


Research the starting pitchers stats and the bullpen of the opposing team and only bet the first 5 innings this will give u the best chance to win


Research and handicapping. Like checking teams records home and away, the SPs and how well they do against the team they are pitching again, lineups and all that shit. Baseball has the most information and data probably out of all the sports.


I parlay the good teams who lost the day before and it’s been working for me


I tend to go with player props over everything else. Find your players with that 70-80% win rate and ride them all season.


After a rolling 10 day bet span, use some of your profits to ride a second player. Always do research in the event someone like You France goes down so that you have your guy like Goldschmidt, Harper, choi and so on are ready


Not gonna say I'm profiting, but I'm starting to go more with wide spreads...like a +3.5 spread for the underdog team. Today is my first day really trying it, so we'll see how it goes.


So there’s this coin that I flip…


I do EV betting. The only way to make money.


Betting on teams streaking. I usually look at the last 10 games. Bet against teams on losing streaks and bet on teams on winning streaks. It works to my advantage most days. Usually 3-5 team parlays. I understand that a streak can't go on forever but I'd rather bet on the teams currently playing well and fade the teams currently playing like shit.