By - itbettersnow
These are all crazy high. For instance with skydiving you have a 0.00039% chance of death on a given jump (based on random shit I just googled).
Climbing Mt Everest has a 1% death rate. Imagine doing something where you’re 10x more likely to die than climbing Mt Everest
Climbing Mt. Everest ten times?
I remember my stats professor saying something about it not being additive but I can’t remember his explanation and even at the time it didn’t make sense to me, so maybe
Let's see, yeah, if the chance of dying on one climb is 1%, the chance of dying on ten climbs is 100% - 99%^10 = 9.562%
Nice. (Idk how I didn’t fail stats lol)
I'm rounding that to "close enough"
This doesn’t factor in the experience from climbing it 9 times
Just for the sake of nagging, it's actually 9.5617925%
No no no. This is based on the assumption that the 10th time has just as high a death rate as the first time. Experience has got to count for something.
Actually it's based on the assumption that there is an experienced person in your climbing group. The first time it would be some veteran or Sherpa, the 10th time you'd be the one leading the climb.
If you're all first timers, you'd have a much higher chance of dying.
If they do then we gotta use the Bayes's formula
and that theres *exactly* a 99% survival rate
Sometimes I miss homework, too, bud
But every time you make the climb, the climb becomes less dangerous. You’re more familiar with the terrain and danger and know how to do things safer and utilize your resources more efficiently. So the risk per climb isn’t going to remain static
I don’t exactly understand it as well but it’s definitely not additive, taking a 1% chance 100 times doesn’t mean you’re guaranteed to get it if I worded that right
That said, I have no clue what the actual equation to find it is
You find the chances you survive (in this case 99%) and put that to the power of how many times you try (in your case 100), and subtract that from 100%. So it would be 1-0.99^100
Someone who succeeds the first time is probably more likely to succeed the next time
Its not really 10% as you get more experience. Which reduces the chance of dying.
Not exactly.. If you flip a coin twice you aren't guaranteed tails. Google binomial distribution
I think it’s important to note that the people who climb everest probably know what they are doing.
If you climb it 10 times you gain more experience, making each trip more and more likely to survive.
putting that into perspective hits differant
Parkour *yells like Michael*
I heard of a guy who’s parachute didn’t open, somehow he survived, then I met a guy who’s chute didn’t open. Ya that’s enough for me I don’t care what the numbers are lol.
Skydiving isn’t that bad. Base jumping for example has a 0.2% death rate
That looks like the injury rate. Fatality rate is 0.04% per jump (again according to very quick and lazy googling).
Ah yes, my bad. Well try formula one racing, that has a 3% fatality rate per race.
The VAST majority of those 3% of casualties happened a long time ago. There have only been 3 fatalities since the start of the 1983 season (more if you count private tests and non f1 sanctioned races that use old f1 cars and stuff like that)
You can't really drive an f1 car unless ur an f1 driver.
That's actually heavily due to the cost of the cars. The traction issues and acceleration from rest aren't too easy either, but still quite doable if someone points out the basics. Just try and keep it slowish
Holy shit talk about a blood sport. What other activities get up over 1%? It’s hard to figure for things like “riding a motorcycle” or “rock climbing” because it’s hard to define (per ride? per climb?).
I’m not sure, but I actually meant to say wingsuiting before, that has a 0.2% death rate per jump
Oh yeah that’s a great one. I’m gonna leave the wingsuiting to people ballsier than me.
So what option would you pick on here? I assume the first one?
Yeah for sure the first one. But I’d have probably gone lower given the option.
Eating cyanide for fun maybe
Oh, there goes my 0.5 death rate idea...
In addition to that it would depend on the commonality of the activity 1% of 850 million a year isn't so bad but 1 percent of 50 million a year, ya no thanks.
Depends on how fun it is
100% death rate ultra fun.
Shaking a vending machine?
Exactly my answer.
I don't even like going to parties even though people say it'll be the "funnest thing ever." Because what's so fun about watching people drink beer and watch people tackle each other over a ball named after a foot?
If this fun activity was medicine it wouldn't be approved if the risk of death was >0.01%
Same with death rates, people argue “it’s only 2%”. But If there was that much a chance of dying in an airplane crash a lot less peope would fly.
Dude, weed has even less than that, and it's still illegal in many parts of the US. It's impossible to OD by smoking. You could OD with edibles, but it would have to be intentional. Better on your lungs than tobacco, less damaging than alcohol, and less addictive than caffeine. It doesn't really appeal to me, but I don't think we should throw anyone in jail for it.
That’s because it’s not about death, it’s about the affect on society. Still arguably minimal compared to other things, but laws aren’t alway about right and wrong in the ways we usually think.
I can't tell if you are agreeing or disagreeing with me, but alcohol is far, far worse. Weed makes you sedative. You aren't going to try to drive. It makes you hungry, not violent. Prohibition proved that banning it only made it worse. Similarly, because weed is banned, people have started making a synthetic version called k2. It's legal in some places weed is not. K2 *does* have a lot of the alleged side effects weed does. He didn't actually hurt anyone, but a kid in a mental hospital with me got verbally confrontational. I wasn't in the hospital with him, but there was a story of a patient that developed permanent psychosis. Meds helped, but he'd have an episode about once a year.
Dude I like how for no reason you turned this into a discussion about weed-legalization. Anyway, I fully agree with what you said and it looks like the next German government will legalize it. Broccoli for all! 🥦🥦
Idk my reason either, your statistic just reminded me of this bullshit. I was agreeing with you, and continuing your point.
People who would take part in an activity that has a 10% chance of killing you, do you value your life?
10% chance of killing me overall or 10% chance of killing me every time i enjoy said activity? Big difference between the 2
10% every time you take part in it
Yeah, I wouldn't do that activity 10 times..
Yo I’m not good at math but I thought those two numbers would be the same..
Fun fact: Nearly 100% of people who breathe die
Well, you’re alive, aren’t you?
I have it on good authority that 7 billion people who breathe haven’t died yet
Its crazy but I breathed my whole life and still haven't died
Since we are talking about statistics, you can't just assume that I will die later.
Since we're talking about statistics I can assume that with a probability of nearly (though admittedly not exactly) 1.
If you consider me a part of the sample you can't change my value just because it's in the minority
What do you mean "change your value"?
100% of people who breathed died within, say, 150 years (I just picked a random upper bound, not a tight one). It is therefore very likely that your lifespan is finite as well.
You have outdated sample
Don’t you mean 100% of people who don’t breathe die?
We breath and well all die eventually so… both of y’all are right! 😊
I breathe and I'm alive
I do, it’s just that I realised that I’ve already done shit that easily could have gone haywire so I’m not sure how little or much of a stretch further I’d be from XYZ activities to 10% chance activities.
Also if a thing is fun enough...
either shits getting better or im out-
if friends wanna do smthn fkn stupid ill go with them and film it and maybe partake
Nope. I want to die anyways like 40% of the time, why not do something fun while I go out? Epic thing, plus change of death? Sign me up
I value fun more than life
I do. But you’re gonna die someday. Might as well die doing something fun as hell.
Done much worse then that lol
No. If I get out of it alive then that's cool, I did something cool. If I don't then oh well.
Absolutely not lol.
Yea I really don’t lmao
me personally, no i am suicidal
None of the above
Those are some crappy odds… Russian roulette is my game of choice.
It's nearly 1.5 of the most probable option
How about a 100% death rate
Are we talking animal crossing or single player Minecraft fun? I'll take 10% for that.
Or just play single player minecraft with 0.003% death?
What's the point of playing if you only have a 0.003% chance of getting the reward?
Can it be higher than 10
Why would you do something that risky?
Most who vote 10% are probably suicidal
Alas, I've been seen
For fun and for death
Edit: apparently riding a motorcycle has a 14% death rate so there you go
because the average redditor thinks that being suicidal makes them interesting
Does it have to be fun? ;)
am living on the edge >:)
Livin like larry
If tank fighting was a real sport (whatever the fuck it's called in Girls Und Panzer) I'd fucking do it and that would have like a 70% chance of dying lmao
I’m pretty sure bungee jumping and doing stupid shit has a less percentage of death than 0.05
What level of fun will I be having?
1 - lowest
10 - highest
Starting from 0.05% let's say 9, 0.1% is a 10
And every following point will be the best experience you ever had beating the previous one.
If you survive it ofc
I’d risk 10% for the best experience I’ve ever had.
You've had the best Experience you ever had and will ever have in your life. Everything after this left you dissatisfied und wanting. You turn down every occasion on socializing since theres nothing worthwhile to talk about anymore until you avoid anyone. Motivationless and down your Job performance suffered and you soon find yourself searching for Work knowing that nothing can fulfill you anyways. Permanently burnt out of joy, your Partner leaves you, knowing she can't give you what you need.
You die poor and alone never reaching fifty.
You've got the bad ending.
I already drive a motorcycle, so I'm ok with 10% if I enjoy it.
100%, depending on the pain level involved. Dying is a *good* thing. It means you don't have to live in this miserable world anymore.
Depends what amount of fun each death rate has, if it’s all the same amount of fun then I’ll choose the lowest risk.
This so depends, what are the benefits, how fun, do I get exercise? Any health benefits like sports? You need to measure the worth of the ratio of death rate to benefits. I’d play sports since exercise dunno what the death rate is but injury rate is pretty high
Every time you get inside a car, there's about a 1% chance that you will die. I acknowledge and accept that risk every day.
Depends on how I die, how long it takes to die, and how fun the activity is.
Apparently roller coasters have significantly less than a .05% death rate and I think that’s the most dangerous recreational activity i take part in so
like I got a 1.3e-7 chance of dying on a roller coaster. And yea maybe alcohol has a higher chance but I do not binge drink, nor do I drink regularly so I don’t really think that’s too risky for me
So about 50 guys rn would die who chose the last option
If you're 90+ every day you live you have a 10% chance of dying apparently.
That’s interesting. Wouldn’t that mean that after 10 days you’re pretty much certain to have died?
Hmm maybe it's a year. But think of the fun they must be having!
0.05% is 1 in 2,000 which is UNREASONABLY HIGH for most high risk professions, let alone a "fun activity" like what the hell. No. None of these.
I would like to skydive, which has ~.40% death rate. So that much.
But also apparently I'm willing to risk ~14% riding a motorcycle, so also that much? Maybe it depends on how much control I have
Your source says 14% of traffic fatalities are motorcycle riders, not that 14% of motorcycle riders die on a motorcycle
Good call, I misread it
Where did you get that number, i found .023% of just getting injured, much less dying.
I’m getting a death rate of 1 in 220,301 for skydiving or 0.000004539244034%
Per the link I edited into my comment
'In 2020, USPA recorded 11 fatal skydiving accidents, a rate of 0.39 fatalities per 100,000 jumps.'
.39 is down from .45 for 2019
dang some people would really miss out on a fun activity since it has a 0.0005% death rate.
That may be true, but it's much, much lower than any of the options available here
Why is there a 50% you won’t wake up every morning? If you don’t mind sharing
50% because you either wake up alive or wake up dead /s
I sneak in my own house,
It's four in the morning,
I had too much to drink,
Said I was out with the boys,
I creep in my bedroom,
I slip into bed,
I know if I wake her,
I'll wake up dead,
I wonder, will she find out,
About the other, other lover,
Wake up dead, you die,
Wake up dead, and buried,
Wake up dead, you die,
Wake up dead.
You’d be dead by now?
COVID has a death rate lower than the lowest number.
Nah, COVID's about 1-2% ish
Depends what activity
Die doing the thing you love
Depends on the degree of fun I’d have.
Demolition derby. No idea what the death rate is, but it seems dangerous. Probably not 0.05%, but still.
depends how fun the activity is
I need some examples, I don't understand percentages.
Well the whatever percentage is probably people who make dumb decisions that put their life at even greater risk
In addition to these all being super high, it also depends on how much of the death rates are caused by people being idiots, and how much of the deaths are completely out of your control.
How often would we be partaking?
depends on the activity... (i know that's no what you were going for lol)
I want to live reddit please
Depemds on the death method and how fun it is I guess
I don't care for the vaccine, so I'ma select 1%
Um thanks for the unnecessary information
Depends on the activity
Is that the actual probability of ME dying, or is it based off of everyone else who's died doing it? Because maybe I would be more safe about it than the majority of other people, so my chances would be better.
Pretty high if there's no chance of surviving severe long-lasting injuries. Good excuse to get out, imo.
It depends on how I would die.
here for a fun time not a long time 🤕
Nothing is *that* fun
TIL that I have a crazy high tolerance for risk.
I blame FOB Shank.
If you dont tell me the death rate ill do it
I was going to vote for 10% because I don’t have a problem with the thought of myself dying. But then I realized how hard it would be on my sister if I just went out to do something fun and never came back, and it went from 10% to 0.1%.
I seem to remember childhood games that has 99.9% chance of dying
100% if it’s fun enough
wheres the 100% option
I don't think that's how one should start an adventure sport.
Driving a motorcycle has to be up there somewhere
I’m a wimp in too many things. What’s life if i don’t take that 95% chance of being alive. Those are pretty good odds and just by taking the fun activity and surviving, i improve those odds by a little. Fun to make a differences.
Russian roulette has 1 in 6 cahnce of dyng, but every people who did it say afterwards it was safe
I hate all things with a death rate above 0.5% anyway.
No higher than 0.00001%
how fun? how brutally dead? I need answers, all the answers
okay squid game /s
None I'm good
i partake ln taking strong meds, which is around 0.01% chance, so yeah…
I mean I think driving is fun, and I’d imagine the death risk would be pretty high if you’re driving a classic vehicle…
10%? sign me the fuck up
It really depends on what the activity is. If it’s something that requires a specific skill and it has a high death rate because either don’t know how to do it or don’t hire someone to help them do it, I would consider doing it with the right precautions. If it’s just something that is up to chance I wouldn’t do it.
Well if I did my favorite thing all day, everyday, for the rest of my life that's 100% rate.
0,05% cuz i cant go lower
0.05% is too risky for you?
Is there an option for 100%? Life is a fun activity
I mean, I already take part in life, which has a 100% death rate.